SI.com - In the year 2000 ... - An article which gets mentioned for many reasons. 1) Reference to the Conan's hilarious In The Year 2000 sketch. 2) Severe concern about Mando's (as Mr. Armando German Benitez will be known from here on out) postseason performance. 7 HRs in a mere 30 1/3 postseason innings. *gulp*. 3) Reference to the Mets' AA team, the Binghamton Mets, who I grew up loving (well, they started when I was young, but they're my local minor league team). 4) Ripping on USA Today's 10 ways to fix baseball which was so awful I won't even link to it here. It really was awful.

Mando came in today in the 8th with a two run lead, then gave up a hit, a GDP, a hit, and a walk on four straight. Then Torre gives him the hook. He's gonna give me a heart attack come October. Hell, come August. . .

Today on FOX was the Cards at the Dodgers, and I saw Tino play for the first time in forever (I've been without cable for most of the summer), and it made me a little nostalgic. Then I looked up his Win Shares for the past two and a half this seasons, and compared them to Giambi's numbers (Tino was with NY for one of these seasons);
Tino had 43 (21 w/ NYY), Giambi had 80 (38 w/ OAK). That's a difference in the past season and a half of 20 win shares. So thats about 13 WS, and is like adding a '02 Andy Pettite to Tino. Couldn't find a better comparison, so that's the one I'm sticking with. Well, B Daubach had 13 last year with BOS as a 1B.

Also, the novelty of typesetting technical documents wears off after about two hours to make 2 finished pages. Well, at least the Yanks won.
- posted by LT @ 7/19/2003 06:14:00 PM

 
Society fuels Bonds' remarks - An interesting counter-argument to what I'd said the other day. Not saying I've changed my mind about Bonds, and his attitude, but it does have a few quotes other sources may have left out that add a little balance to Bonds' rant. His (Bonds') main point is that he feels Henry Aaron doesn't get the respect he deserves as all time home run king, and I think that's partially true. People give him the record, but also say that he never hit more than 47 HRs and that it was just that he lasted forever. Well, in baseball thats not easy to do for 22 seasons (see Ken Griffey, Jr. who is out for the rest of this season and who has played seasons of 145, 111, 70, and 52 in Cincy). In Aaron's entire career he only played less than 110 games once (his final season, and in which he still played 85 games). He played more than 150 14 times, more than 130 18 times (17 straight). He was a machine. He is the home run king, and his accomplishments are, and have been, recognized by people for the past 30+ years. Maybe not as much as Ruth, but that's because Ruth was Ruth. He was more than a great baseball player, he was a cultural icon, bigger than life, etc. He was bigger than Jordan ever was. We, in this modern era, have trouble picturing a ballplayer such as Ruth as such a national hero, especially since we now know of his vices. But we also are used to the media telling us every little detail of player's off-season (and during) season exploits. OK, enough ranting for now. I might come back and compare these three (Bonds, Aaron, and Ruth) in a few days, but I'll have to see. Just found two more articles about this, from ESPN. This one is titled Barry's head has swollen, which strikes me a humorous because of the steroid questions. Does anyone has pictures of him as a rookie and now which show the change in head size? I might have to look this up. This one by Ray Ratto talks about a dugout sharing the Babe and the Barry. Neat, not sure I agree with his outcome, but a good read none-the-less.

GODZILLA!!!
- posted by LT @ 7/18/2003 11:38:00 AM

 
The Numbers Game and The Professor of Baseball are two articles about the current king of SABRmetricians (found these on the Baseball News Blog). He does work for the BoSox, which I guess we won't hold him against him. The Historical Baseball Abstract is one of the most fun coffee table/bathroom books for baseball fans. Any player (most of whom I've never heard of) has a great couple paragraph write-up. The Win Shares idea is very, very complicated (I'm just starting to work through the details).

Since we're on the topic of Bill James, I'll finally come back to The Return of Rickey '03. Why are the two connected in my mind? It's because of the write up in the Historical Abstract about Rickey. James said he was once asked if Rickey was a hall of famer, and he responded "If you could split him in two, you'd have two Hall of Famers." That just always stuck with me. OK, now on to my opinion and analysis of his Rickey-ness' return. Rickey is one of the most unique ballplayers of all time, a great symbol of the free-agency, me-first attitude, go to the highest bidder. But then again, he just loves the game, and doesn't want to quit, just because he likes playing so much (or so he says). His OPS numbers the past two years were a little below average (30 points in '02, and 35 points in '01), but that's still respectable. Last year Christian Guzman was 71 points below league average for OPS. And for a 41-42 year-old it's not too shabby. This will be his 25th season and his 9th team (he's had several repeat stints with several team (I want to say 4 with the A's, and 3 with the Yanks, but this is probably wrong). While with the Independent League's Newark Bears the Rickey (I have actually heard himself refer to himself in the 3rd person, so I figure I can at least pay the Rickey the same curtosy (sp?)) was batting .339 with 8 HR, and 33 RBI, and 9 stolen bases. All in all, I think he'll be a good utility player for the Dodgers, and probably will help them a lot more than he'll hurt them. From the Newark team we heard nothing but glowing reports of his great team play, and his willingness to help teach young players the game and how it should be played.

Yesterday I commented that Benitez would have less pressure as a set-up man, and in today's ATM Reports Lee Sinins disagreed with those who made the same claims:
"Benitez is known for being the best pitcher in baseball if you're trying
to blow a big game. I can't stop laughing at those who are insisting that, by moving into the setup role, there will be less pressure on him. If people would get their heads of stat books, and not looking at a silly measure like "saves", they will realize that the setup innings are where more games are won and lost by every single team in baseball every single year. Those are the real pressure innings and deciding to sabotage your team by putting a pitcher with a fragile psyche into those innings is a move that Benedict Arnold would have been proud of."

I guess I was right to initially be nervous. I must say that Lee's several daily (free) e-mails are amazing in quality. I also own his Baseball Encyclopedia, and it is an amazing tool which is very, very useful for all baseball fans. You can do just about anything with it. This is his webpage, and the link to get the free e-mails is near the top on the right.

Also the archives are all screwed up, so if they don't work, and you want to read them, let me know and I'll try to get them fixed. Also, please send in comments, etc, so I can make this better.
- posted by LT @ 7/17/2003 07:18:00 PM

 
Well, the Yankees pulled the trigger on that trade. Here's what the Mets got from ESPN:
Anderson, 24, is 1-0 with a 4.79 ERA in 22 relief appearances for the Yankees this year. Garcia, 22, is 3-6 with a 3.32 ERA in 11 starts and five relief appearances for Class-A Battle Creek. Bicondoa, 24, is 3-2 with a 3.54 ERA in five starts and 10 relief appearances for Class-A Tampa.

I just realized I made a mistake in an earlier post, I was worried about the Yanks losing Clausen in the trade, which they didn't. According to ProspectReport.com, J. Anderson is an honorable mention of the Yankees farm system. The other two aren't mentioned anywhere I can find, so I'll leave that for now (if I find any links I'll throw them up here).

What the Yankees get back is a moody, but undeniably talented closer who'll act in a much lesser pressure filled role as a set-up man for one of the best in the game. Benitez has 8 win shares which puts him in the top 10 of NL relievers, and he joins Mo who in his partial half season puts him in the top 5 of AL relivers. I'm a little more excited now about this trade than I was 24 hours ago. He's a power pitcher (ESPN classifies this as someone whose (BB+SO)/IP > 1.13, and Benitez is 1.5). Benitez fact "o' the trade": His middle name is German.
- posted by LT @ 7/16/2003 10:18:00 PM

 
Got Win Shares by Bill James today. Have just gotten through the early stuff, and am about to hit the meat of the formulas. I read the short form in the beginning and was motivated to figure out the Win Shares at the break for everybody's favorite team. But then I realized a) someone has probably done this already on the web, and b) my spreadsheet doesn't work since the great windows reinstall of 4 days ago. But I kept poking around, and found a link to the AL and NL totals. Reposted here for your viewing enjoyment, the Yankees lineup.

18 - J Giambi
18 - A Soriano
14 - J Posada
12 - H "Godzilla" Matsui
11 - M Mussina
10 - D Wells
9 - R Clemens
9 - D Jeter
9 - M Rivera
8 - B Williams
7 - R Ventura
6 - R Mondesi
6 - A Pettitte
6 - N Johnson
4 - C Hammond
3 - J Weaver, T Zeile, A Osuna
2 - J Contreras, E Almonte, K Garcia, R Sierra
1 - J Rivera, A Reyes, B Claussen, S Hitchcock, J Anderson, E Wilson, J Flaherty

The one thing that sticks out at me is that Nicky J has 6 and has missed a big part of the season. He'll make a big impact once he gets back. He was on course for a breakout year. It's the second year thing with the Yankees. Sori came up, was OK, then *boom*. Nick came up last year, was OK, then *boo. . . broken hand*. But we got a whole half to play. And I'm looking forward to it.
- posted by LT @ 7/16/2003 08:27:00 PM

 
Bonds ripping The Babe feels like blasphemy is a great article by Greg Cote. Bonds claims to have "wiped Babe out" as a left handed hitter. Are you kidding me Barry? Yes, you have some of his records, but you also play in a age where HRs are more common than Benitez blowing saves. (At least) Twice in his career Ruth had more home runs than any other team in his league. Chew on that one for a few Barry. He also would have probably made the Hall as a pitcher if not for his decent ability with a stick of lumber (I have some comments about that in the archives, which appear not to work right now).
I really like the way Cote ends it, "Give him (Ruth) respect."
- posted by LT @ 7/16/2003 09:54:00 AM

 
Does Home Field Matter?
I was reading Only Baseball Matters and wanted to see if in fact, home field did matter in the post season. I've also looked at the past 5 postseasons all 3 rounds (I'm just too tired to do more, but if a few people are interested, I'll gladly do it). In the past 5 years the home team is 87-74 (54%). This isn't as impressive, but its a hair better than regular season results (53.2%).

But it appears as though that in World Series home field does matter. In the past 20 years, the home team is 71-45 (61.2%). In the past 15 years the home team is 55-30, or 64.7%. Only twice in the last 15 years has the away team won more than the home team ('96,'97). In the five years prior to that it happend 3 more times. Only six times has it been split in the last 20 years, and 4 times it was because it was a sweep. 6 times in the past 20 years has the home team won more than 5 games, and only once has the away team won 5. 3 times in the last 15 years the home team has won all 7 games ('01,'91,'87).

So that's my two cents, I think this my not prove home field matters, but it definately shows it may have a greater impact than in regular season games. If you think my stats are wrong, they may well be, I'm a little tired, and am compiling them by just re-reading all the results from Baseball-Reference.com. If you have any comments, please feel free to let me know (ltgrant AT baka DOT com).
- posted by LT @ 7/16/2003 01:04:00 AM

 
This is the first guest column (although Matt may soon become a co-author) on this site. He describes his work as "I went for a few stats, but it turned out to be a sentimental fan piece."

Florida Marlins Report: A Return to Glory Imminent?

In 1993, the fledgling Florida Marlins won their very first game of their very first season. In 1997, they won the very last game of that season, earning the title of World Champions. Since then they have sold off stars and replaced them with young up-and-comers who they have also shopped around to avoid spending money. Well now they are on the verge again. With Dontrelle Willis in the fold, the Fish are pushing for a wild card birth. Will they fall into their old ways, or is this a return to the glory of 6 seasons ago?
The Marlins appear to be willing to spend to contend. During the offseason they opened their wallet and signed Pudge Rodriguez to a $10 million contract. They recently acquired Ugueth Urbina to bolster the pen for the stretch run. They took Mike Lowell off the market, and are now in the market for slugger Juan Gonzalez. Put Juan Gone in that lineup and they are a pretty potent bunch. Check out these numbers at the break, with Gonzalez inserted:
Juan Pierre 0 HR, 25 RBI, 44 SB, .298 BA, .358 OBP
Luis Castillo 6 HR, 26 RBI, 14 SB, .311 BA, .375 OBP
Ivan Rodriguez 13 HR, 59 RBI, 9 SB, .300 BA, .375 OBP
Mike Lowell 28 HR, 76 RBI, 2 SB, .275 BA, .351 OBP
Juan Gonzalez 23 HR, 66 RBI, 1 SB, .288 BA, .321 OBP
Juan Encarnacion 12 HR, 58 RBI, 15 SB, .283 BA, .324 OBP
Derek Lee 19 HR, 52 RBI, 15 SB, .263 BA, .372 OBP
Alex Gonzalez 12 HR, 53 RBI, 0 SB, .288 BA, .332 OBP

I don’t know how many other teams can field an everyday lineup with all-around numbers like that. LT’s Yankees can, and better, but with far more money invested in it, and hey, we can’t all be the Yankees. A fact worth mentioning is that the Marlins are putting up these numbers despite playing in an overwhelmingly pitcher-friendly park. They do most of their offensive damage on the road. Granted, Juan Gone will probably be a Yankee soon enough, and he would probably veto a trade to FLA, but if Pudge, all our Hispanics, and the lack of a state income tax can talk Juan into coming to south Florida, watch out. Add him to our pitching staff and there could be a Fish sighting in October.
Trade Derek Lee for Jeff Conine now. Mr. Marlin (12 HR, 63 RBI, 4 SB, .285 BA, .343 OBP) belongs back home. He is a leader, he drives in runs and hits for average better than Lee, and most importantly the fans love him. With Conine and Dontrelle in the lineup, Pro Player will be jumping all the way to game 6 (thanks a lot Gagne) of the Series.

With all that said, the Marlins will have to be special to come out of the tight NL. The Braves and Giants are too good for the Marlins to beat unless they play outside of themselves. But they won the Series as the Wild Card in 1997, and they didn’t even have Dontrelle then, so I they can pull it off with a little Mr. Marlin magic.
After October, all the Marlins have to do is retain people. They have Brad Penny, Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis, Mark Redman, and Carl Pavano. That is a good enough staff without Burnett, since Willis, Penny, and Beckett will either get better or get hurt, they are so young. As much as it pains me to say it, they should let AJ Burnett go. He won’t return to form until 2005, and although he was the staff ace, and a good one, clear room to resign Lowell and try to keep some other people like Luis Castillo around. If the Fish make the playoffs, I say you either open up the checkbook to pay Pudge, or you let him go and clear some space to bring in Vlad Guererro to fill Juan Gone’s shoes (he is only here for one year). It’s all about opening up the wallet. The Marlins could easily contend for years with this lineup of 20-something studs. Problem is they don’t make any money because the stadium sucks. With Willis and Conine, Floridians will like baseball again. Those two will draw 30,000 to Fish games. I know, I saw how much people love Jeff Conine and Dontrelle, I am one of them. Then Miami and Loria must get together and put a stadium in downtown Miami so that the fan base will want to go to the park. If that is done, either sign Pudge or go get Vlad and let Ramon Castro catch. A new park with Dontrelle and a Hispanic star like Pudge or Vlad, coupled with Mr. Marlin retiring in Teal and Black will revive baseball in Miami for years to come.

- posted by LT @ 7/15/2003 11:45:00 PM

 
What a game. AL won a real thriller. I stopped putting comments up when I realized I'd get too emotional about my comments (and start cursing like a sailor). The Godzilla comment was when I realized I should probably take notes and write after I calmed down. I make outrageous claims during the game. Godzilla is the greatest player ever, Nomar is everything that's wrong with baseball, I could have hit that ball out of the park. This is why I cut myself off.

First things is the Umps making that judgement call about the ground rule double and scoring the run which should have been on third. At first I thought this was a great thing because then people would blame the umps instead of Selig, but then Selig would be blamed for making the game count. I think the fact hte game counts is a good thing, becuase otherwise its just random chance, and this is better than random chance (see wild card Marlins getting it over the central champ Indians).

I was going to whine about the Hasegawa 2 hr homer. My comment was going to be, "leave it to a Mariner to blow something with important playoff implications." But now, I can breathe easy.

The Bud commercial with the warning moat was by far and away the funniest commercial I've seen in a long time. I can't remember any from this years Super Bowl that were that funny. The alligator was a great touch. Just enough over-the-topness

Tim McCarver had the funniest line I've heard in a game in a while (mind you I've only been watching the Saturday day games since I've come back to school in early June); "Yes and next year they've decided the winner of the World Series decides the home field advantage in the All-Star Game." Just a great humorous touch in the middle of a game. Very funny, even for Timmy. Who gets on my nerves like no other in the post-season. My all time favorite McCarver quote was "Craig Counsell is the best two-strike hitter in baseball" during the '01 WS. C'mon Tim, he may be good, but the best? He is a true blue ND grad, but even I won't give him that, everyone knows that's Hideki Matsui.

The whole time I was watching with Mike who's staying here for the Summer Hall thing, and he kept saying he didn't like the way they said the game was "definately over" after 7 innings. They kept coming back to it, and back, and back, . . . He kept saying that "games aren't over to they're over." And boy-oh-boy was he right. My favorite non-Yankee Gagne got lit up like a roman candle on the Fourth of July (or, for my French friends, Bastille Day). But I was glad to see him pitch, but I was even happier to see the AL win.

Mike did have one hell of a comment which cracked me up, "Remember when Jeremy Giambi was good." I just started cracking up. Giambi's best lines from his best seasons: .285 AVG, .414 OBP, .505 SLG, 20 HR, 57 RBI. So I don't think I'd ever call him good. He was maybe average, but good, no. When I can figure it out, I'll put up his win shares.

I'm very worried about the Yankees trading Anderson for Benitez. You could be trading a future rotation member for a 2nd/3rd rate closer (who would be a 2nd-ish rate setup man), who we'll only have for 1 year. It just worries me about how short sighted the team is at times. They need a youth infusion in the rotation. Hopefully they'll be able to hold out and give a B and C prospect. I think they're too afraid of the Red Sox getting him that they'll give up too much.

I'll probably have guest commentary up later from Matt Harrigan later.
- posted by LT @ 7/15/2003 11:22:00 PM

 
Taking out Godzilla after going 1 for 2 is a dumb dumb idea. He's the best player on the field right now. Hell, he's the best player ever.
Ok, so i'm a bit ticked about my boy being the first guy out. But he is good, and did make an average catch in center.
- posted by LT @ 7/15/2003 08:53:00 PM

 
anticipatory - timmy's word of the day. this guys really gonna get on my nerve. i don't mind him on saturday baseball, but when i care about the game he gets me pissed off.
- posted by LT @ 7/15/2003 07:52:00 PM

 
sean connery? league of extrodinary major leaguers? c'mon. The effects were neat, but do we need to hawk a movie during the opening. I remember Michael J Fox doing the into to game 7 of the Stanley Cup a few years ago (when Borque won w/ Colorado). That was a great intro, and I think you could open w/ a non-commericalized version. Sell the old names (Bonds, A-Rod, Clemens), the hot new things (GODZILLA!, Dontrelle, Loaiza), and the whole This Time It Counts thing. But I'm excited.
And what a sweet nickname for Willis, "D-Train".
And that American League jersey Scocsia wore in the intro interview was miserable. I hope they don't use those. It looks like the guys are wearing their home teams' jerseys which is good. And I hope they don't feel bad about getting everyone in. I want to win this game. Screw peoples feelings, WIN!
- posted by LT @ 7/15/2003 07:18:00 PM

 
Major League Baseball : The Official Site - If you're stuck in a computer cluster or something and can't watch the game, you may want to listen to it. I've had pretty good luck with MLB's streaming audio over the past two years. Last year I got the Yankee games and really enjoyed hearing games on radio. Gave an old school feel to the grand ole game.

All-Star Game - This is my favorite way to track the game as it goes on. This is actually the preview of the game, but once it starts it should give you a link near the top. Quick, accurate, no reloading.
- posted by LT @ 7/15/2003 06:56:00 PM

 
Baseball-Reference.com - Major League Baseball Statistics and History
I'm not sure if I'll get to talk about Rickey's comeback until after the All-Star game, but if you're at this site and haven't gone to this one above, you need to stop reading my crap, and go to this amazing free resource.
- posted by LT @ 7/15/2003 03:12:00 PM

 
NL All-Stars
C - Javy Lopez - By a hair over Ivan Rodriguez, who's always been a personal favorite, and who's having quite the comeback-ish season which I bet few outside of Marlins fans expected. Lopez has played in 10 less games, which means right now he's not technically a batting qualifier (almost gave me trouble when trying to pick the C). While Pudge has about twice the K/BB ratio, Lopez does have more TB and XBH than him, and that does it for me (along with the 80 points in OPS).
1B - Todd Helton - By far and away. Leading NL 1B'ers in just about everything. A fantastic 1.36 BB/K ratio, which puts him 9th overall in the bigs. Just a great first half.
2B - Jose Vidro - A great blend of everything in this 2B. 1st among NL 2B's with .332 AVG, 1st with .418 OBP, 1st with 46 BBs, 1st with .934 OPS, 2nd with 11 HRs, 2nd with 47 RBIs, 2nd with .506 SLG. Just a good first half with 1.64 BB/Ks. A quick digression into this stat and why I keep coming back to it. I guess some people put a lot of value into the number of K's a guy has in a year, and I don't think that's necessarily a smart thing. An out is an out. But I think if two people's average is close, and you have to pick between them, I guess I'd rather have the guy who puts the ball into play more often than not, and maybe something will happen. I also think this stat shows their discipline at the plate, and their ability to see the ball. If you strike out a lot, then make it count by walking a lot too, or if you don't walk much, don't strike out much. Probably not the best logic, but it works for me.
SS - Edgar Renteria - A four way race between him Gonzalez, Cabrera, and Furcal, but the 10 extra steals, and the extra 30 points in both AVG and OBP really seal the deal. (Comments are getting shorter as I am getting bored, tired, and a headache).
3B - Mike Lowell - Between him and Rolen the numbers are very close. The edge goes to Lowell just for the 10 extra homeruns. And Matt knows he'll sign with the Yankees at the end of the year so he better make one All-Star team as a Marlin.
OF - Barry Bonds - I know I had LF,RF,CF in the AL, here I can't do that because we have both Barry and Pujols playing left. I really have nothing to say about Barry. I mean at this point we need to stop talking about testing him for steroids and start testing to make sure he's human.
OF - Albert Pujols - A great young player who's knee deep in the triple-crown race. C'mon isn't that great analysis? I bet you haven't read that anywhere else. I haven't gotten to see him play defense too much, but if he's not as fast as some players, as Barry insinuated, a move to the DH in the AL wouldn't be a bad idea. But then again, he did play 3 positions last year, so I've got a feeling Barry might just be a little worried. Personally though I don't think he'll get the triple crown. In fact I'd be suprised if he got at least one of them. It's a tough thing to do, and one injury here or the teams offense slowing down, and it's all but over for him. But anything that draws attention to a great young player and the game of baseball is a good thing. So part of me hopes he gets it.
OF - Gary Sheffield - This was a close race between him and Edmonds, but the 45 fewer strikeouts won me over. I know I talked about this being bunk but 45 more balls in play has to make a difference in the course of a half a season. As for the 6 HR differential, this isn't that much, because either guy could go on a tear, and Edmonds first half has been a career half. So Sheffield gets the nod here in this star studded outfield.

LHP - Dontrelle Willis - He is here both on merit and his rocking-ness. His ERA is a sick 2.08 and he has 3.29 K/BB's and 8.84 K/9. So far this season he's won 69% of his starts. For reference, among 10 game winners, Halladay has won 61% of his, Ponson, has won 66% of his, Chacon has won 64% of his. I would have checked all time stuff, but I can't get to my database of info (more on this thing later, it rocks).

RHP - Jason Schmidt - Beats out Brown with his 5 complete games and 3 shutouts. Not sure if that's good for him for the run of the season if his pitch counts went too high. A lot of people have expressed concern over Alou's use of starting pitchers.

RP - Eric Gagne - No doubt. Smoltz may have more saves, and a slightly lower ERA, but . . . Gagne has saved 63% of his teams games. Smoltz has saved 56% of his teams games. What does this mean? A few things. If you consider total saves these two balance out because while the Dodgers play more close games which can be saved, the Braves win more games, which leads to more saves, although they win by bigger amounts. Gagne's WHIP is .750 while Smoltz's is .866, and people are batting 50 points lower against Gagne. Along with all of these things, he has those sweet glasses. And he doesn't play for the Braves. Two more plus points.


Rookie of the Half:
AL - Rocco Baldelli - I love Godzilla as much as anyone. But if you've been an umpteen time all star in Japan, you shouldn't be considered a rookie here. I made the same argment when Ichiro was new here, so it just wouldn't be right for me to go back on those rants of two years ago. But Godzilla is having a great half as well as Baldelli. They have similar stats, with Matsui having better RBI's due to NY's slightly better offense.
NL - Dontrelle Willis - See above. Just a great player. I really hope he keeps it up. Webb gets a very honorable mention, and may be more deserving by the time the season ends. But right now you just can't ignore what Willis has done.

Not gonna bother doing the AL/NL Cy Young, I had enough trouble picking these six. Same reason I'm not picking AL/NL MVPs. I'll try to have my predictions for standings, postseason, and end of the year awards up after the All-Star Game, along with my super-awesome review/commentary on the All-Star Game.

Hope you enjoy these! Send comments and tell all your friends. Please.

- posted by LT @ 7/14/2003 06:22:00 PM

 
With the All-Star break upon us, and the anger about selections fading now that every other player initially selected to the game has become injured, gotten tired, or just doesn't care anymore, so almost all the "should have been picked" guys are now there, I single handedly will create a nationwide firestorm of media frenzy with my picks for the All-Star Teams. This may come in pieces as I do have a meeting with my advisor in an hour and need to eat lunch (turkey sandwiches today) before that. I'm just going to pick starters (plus a LHP, RHP, and RP) for each team because I'm not in the mood to find every deserving schmuck from here to Detroit. I also can't check defensive stats, so I'll just have to go on what I know right now about their defensive ability.
AL All-Stars
C - Jorge Posada - I almost went with Jason Varitek which would kill me as a huge Jorge fan, Jorge's only batting .252 right now, which 50 points below Varitek. He does have a better OBP (30 pts), but is 100 points behind on slugging, which means Varitek's ISO is 52 points better. What made me go with Posada was that he draws walks at almost twice the rate of Posada, and his secondary average is 80 points better. They strike out about the same. Posada gets an extra .3 pitches/PA. This one is very close, and I could have gone either way. I picked Posada because I'm a Yankee fan. There I said it, and you'll probably see my bias later. I don't know about Varitek's defense, but I know Posada's has gotten a lot better this year over years pasts, he's been pretty conscience about it, and for good reason, he used to be pretty bad at stopping pitches in the dirt.
1B - Carlos Delgado - Just watch out for Giambi in the second half. Boy is heatin' up. Once he gets used to the short porches. . . Delgado might challenge the RBI record, but I have a feeling that Toronto's slide will continue and this will show up in his RBI totals.
2B - Alfonso Soriano - I know Boone and Sori are neck and neck, Boone has more RBIs, but Sori has more steals. I guess again my Yankee bias is showing through, but I think that with this being an All-Star team we'll have plenty of power spread around. So I think the extra 18 SB are the difference maker here. I think Sori would have a couple more RBI's if he didn't bat 1st, Boone bats 3rd in the Seattle lineup which has to account for some of the gap.
SS - Alex Rodriquez - A no brainer, even with Nomar's good season (he's batting 34 points above A-Rod). You just can't not put this guy on your all-star team with his consitency and skill. (I'm putting a permanent disclaimer on my spelling here. I'm not good at it. I know that. But I admit it. I don't have time to spell check usually, so I won't).
3B - Bill Mueller - Huh? That's what I said when I kept looking at the numbers. But his AVG, OBP, and SLG are better than every other 3B I considered. He has more extra base hits as well. So this is my surprise pick of the day so far. But #2 is Koskie. This was a close race, but Mueller just kept leading categories, and you can't really ignore that.
LF - Manny Ramirez - This started as a three horse race, but Anderson got dropped early because of his low walk total. Mora and Ramirez have about equal SO and BB numbers (Manny is one of only 25 players in the bigs to have more BB than SO), but Ramirez has about 70 more AB, and 80 more PA. This is a tight race, but the extra 40 TBs make up for the 30 average points. These two are very close, but Manny is a little more powerful, and hey, chicks dig the long ball. Mora is a worthy All-Star choice, just not mine.
CF - Milton Bradley - Again, this is a close race, but a few things stick out to me that made me pick Bradley over Wells. The first is that Bradley has over twice the walks in 80 less PA. The second is that his OBP is over 100 points better. His slugging is 50 points less, and he has 15 less homers, but his slugging is still a respectable .502. Wells has twice the RBI's but this is a byproduct of the powerhouse offense the Blue Jays displayed in the first half, and the anemic offense which all true Indians fans have come to know and love. Bradley also has 15 steals, which isn't a lot, but does show he has the potential for more, but the 5 CS's are a little worrysome, but nothing way out of wack with league average (which I think is 70%, so he is a little better than that).
RF - Ichiro Suzuki - Suprisingly Trot Nixon initially led the stats columns, but he's 120 ABs short of Ichiro's totals, and I'm not sure if that means he's platooning out there, or what, but Ichiro is just Ichiro, and the more you look at the stats you see that he is the best choice. His biggest competition came from Huff, who has put up a very respectable first half (.304 BA, and .900 OPS). Ichiro's RBI totals are very very low, but this might have something to do with his lack of in game power (apparently his batting practices can be impressive). He has 25 steals, and amazing defense, so this choice works. He does have a surprisingly low number of walks/PA (.053), and the lowest Pitches/PA (3.4) of any qualifying right fielder.
DH - Edgar Martinez - He's at the top of just about every category of the three qualifying DH's. Frank Thomas has had a good first half, its nice to see the Big Hurt back, but he's just not better than Edgar right now.

LHP - David Wells - I started by looking at the top 11 pitches in wins. I know this is an awful way of determining pitcher value, but anyone outside of these guys has at most 5 wins, and if you have less than 8 wins, there better be some special circumstances for you to make my all-star team. I immediately discarded Chris George (KCR), because despite his 9 wins, he has a 7.11 era, which is amazing for guy on track to win 17 or 18 games. Then I realized the bottom 3 guys in this ranking (Buerhle, Rodgers and Brian Anderson (CLE)) didn't really match up with the remaining guys. So they got booted. Then goes Pettitte (despite leading all lefties with 101 Ks) and Washburn for their over 4 ERAs. From my remaining 5 pitchers, all are in the top 20 for WHIP, so that's a wash. Zito and Sabathia have the worst ratio of K/BB as well as BB/9, so they both leave us now. You could pick either Mulder or Moyer at this point and make many good arguments, but the fact Wells has only issued 6 walks this year is unbelievable. Last year when Schilling was on pace to have more wins than walks people made it seem like he was going for 30 wins, and Wells isn't getting this attention because he's . . . David Wells. But I think he's put a great season together, and the biggest thing against him is that he has the most run support (7.44) of all these guys. And there's nothing he can do about that, and his era tells us he'd win w/o that great support, maybe one or two games less, but he'd still win.

RHP - Roy Halladay - It came down to him vs Loaiza (Moose is up there, but I'll catch enough crap for Wells and Sori as it is). Loaiza does have a ERA 1 point lower, but they both get equal run support, so that doesn't mean Halladay is getting off w/ better run support (which you think he would with Toronto's first half offense). Halladay has thrown in 2 more games, and has gone 2 outs further each time on average. He also has a much better K/BB ratio (5 for Halladay vs 3 for Loaiza).

RP - Keith Foulke - 24 saves, 7 wins, 1 loss, 2.68 ERA, 9.66 K/9, 1.97 BB/9, 0.97 WHIP. What else do you want from your closer? I'm not to sure why he has 8 decisions (this is usually a sign of the reliever screwing things up, but I think Oakland has had some middle relief issues). But the fact he's held on to win 7 of them, even if it was his own fault (which I'm not sure they are), is a good thing.

Next, the NL. . . Tonight.
- posted by LT @ 7/14/2003 12:59:00 PM

 
Wow. I gave up on this thing, but I am now gonna work at this. Really, I will. My goal is to . . . I don't know, get people I don't tell to come here, to come here.

The main reason I'm going at this again is because after talking with my friends this weekend and reading this article, I realized that baseball is not dead, it is in fact alive and well as america's pastime. My friend Mark says that now that his Indians suck (which they do), he follows them more than he used to. I'm pretty sure it's because they suck with potential now, as opposed to other teams in the bigs who just suck. Matt also is all riled up about the season because of his boy Dontrelle, who I must agree, is just fun to watch. Hopefully he'll get some decent innings in Tuesday's all-star game presented by FOX. Hopefully we'll also get to see the Rocket make an appearance and nail some poor chump from the NL. The fact people across the country are so riled up about the mid-summer classic (as they were after last years fun), shows that people around the country, despite what everyone would like us to believe, still care a lot about baseball.

I'm also writing this to hopefully get people who can give me some feedback on my ideas for research this upcoming fall semester. I have a pretty open path to do what I'd like on anything related to baseball and math (which is just about everything). I should be getting Bill James' Win Shares this week, which should give me a great starting ground. I think though, I'm going to have a problem from the get-go with James' idea because it bases the possible worth of players on the number of games their teams win (I think the team gets 3 "Win Shares" for every game they win, and then the total of these is divided up among the players). I think if you had a single great player on an awful team (ie ARod on the Rangers), he would put up the same stats on the Yankees, but there would be more Win Shares to go around. Then again, on the Yankees, other players would fight more for the Shares. OK, I'm gonna hold off on judgement on the idea until I read his book.

The All Star Game debacle of '03. People have written a lot about this, and I will be no different. Should the game count? Sure, why not? I think probably the best idea for home field would be to have the team w/ the best record get it, but until they do that, this is a good idea. I also don't like the idea of having to have every player play (although I don't think this is a requirment anymore). Just getting elected to the game should be enough, as it shows that your peers recognize your ability and want to see you there. The starters should be elected by the fans, and if you think its bad that Godzilla is starting you're an idiot. He may not be one of the top three outfielders, he has merited making it to the game through his play alone. You can't just blame the Japanese fans for "stuffing the boxes," because it sure as hell happens to popular, yet not-quite deserving, American fans every year. I think the fans though are getting better about knowing who deserves it and who doesn't (Pujols over Sosa).

Quick note about Pujols. . . Can he win the triple crown, probably, will he, I really don't know. But he did comment that he thinks it would be tougher to win the triple crown than to hit in 56 straight games. What a putz, it's a lot tougher to hit in 56 straight. If I get motivated I'll put up the statistical breakdown on the web sometime about just how tough it is to hit in 56 straight games.

OK, that's it for now, but check back often, I'm really gonna work at this.
- posted by LT @ 7/13/2003 04:48:00 PM