Bernie Moving Upstate?
This is a topic which I mention a few posts ago, is Bernie Williams Hall worthy? Or even close? I am really entering this with no idea what the answer is going to be. Lets lay a few basics down (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/BB/HR/RBI):
Career: .308/.392/.498/.890/827/226/998
Career Highs: .342/.435/.575/1.010/100/30/121
His best season appears to be 1999, which accounts for the career highs in AVG, OBP, HR. Baseball Prospectus ranks his defensive rate for his career as a 98, which means he is two runs below average per 100 games.

In the Bill James' Historical Abstract he has Bernie rated as the 37th best CF after the '00 season.

So far in his career Bernie has 263 WS (not including the 7 he has from this season so far, because you're not supposed to figure this out for partial seasons, but I'm not including it, because the jury is still out for him on this season). With this many WS he's now (about) the 266th player overall all time on the WS list (The list was made after the '01 season, so I just added his '02 totals, so their may be other active players who have passed him). Now this is definately not a very high career total, but there are HOF'ers below him, Stan Coveleski has 245 WS (the Single-A D'Back affliate in South Bend (the Silver Hawks) play in Coveleski Stadium). But for the most part, the players surrounding him were considered very good in their time, but just outside the HOF caliber player level (3 former Yankee examples: Mattingly (263), O'Neill (259), Canseco (272)). So on that scale, he's obviously not there yet. His career high season in WS was 33, in 99, and he had a 30 WS season in '02. He was the 34th best player in the 90's despite not playing over 100 games untill '93.
Assuming this year he gets healthy, and has an average half season, he'd finish with around 16 WS, and will be 34. Assuming he can put two more solid (by his standards seasons) of 24 WS, and two "mop-up" seasons of 12 each. That would take his career total to 351 WS which would put him in the top 100 of all-time. After '01 Clemens had 351 WS, Roberto Alomar had 345, Biggio and McGwire each had 342, Palmeiro and Ryan had 334, . So, assuming he puts up the numbers in the next four years I'm assuming (which is a big if), he would be around some players who definately belong in there, and some who don't. So this kind of leaves us no where.

And now, the heavy stats, I fired up my handy-dandy Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia (which if you're reading this, and even halfway enjoying this, you really would enjoy this software, it is fantastic and Lee's daily e-mails are top shelf). So the lists I'm generating here are based on the past 100 years (1903-2002) and CF'ers, this isn't super organized, but I'll try and keep them in some semblance of order. I'll also try and put in other modern and well-known players to keep things in perspective. Also sorry if the columns don't line up, I have to figure out how to make that work sooner or later. . .

CAREER STATS:
Totals
AVG (min. 2500 ABs)
1. Ty Cobb .372
2. Tris Speaker .345
...
5. Joe DiMaggio .325
...
12. Kirby Puckett .318
...
16. Bernie Williams .308
...
20. Willie Mays .302

RBI
1. Willie Mays 1903
2. Tris Speaker 1536
...
5. Ken Griffey, Jr. 1358
...
10. Bernie Williams 998
...
15. Kirby Puckett 874

Home Runs
1. Willie Mays 660
2. Ken Griffey, Jr. 468
3. Mickey Mantle 464
...
10. Bernie Williams 226
11. Steve Finley 222

Doubles
1. Tris Speaker 792
2. Ty Cobb 568
...
T7. Ken Griffey, Jr. 370
...
10. Bernie Williams 353
11. Joe DiMaggio 345

Extra Base Hits
1. Willie Mays 1323
2. Tris Speaker 1131
3. Ty Cobb 901
4. Ken Griffey, Jr. 873
...
13. Bernie Williams 631
...
16. Kirby Puckett 561

OBP (min. 2500 ABs)
1. Ty Cobb .442
2. Mickey Mantle .431
..
10. Bernie Williams .392
...
12. Jim Edmonds .384

SLG (min. 2500 ABs)
1. Mickey Mantle .587
2. Joe DiMaggio .579
3. Hack Wilson .577
4. Ken Griffey, Jr. .562
...
12. Andruw Jones .503
...
15. Bernie Williams .498

OPS (min. 2500 ABs)
1. Mickey Mantle 1.018
2. Hack Wilson .984
3. Joe DiMaggio .982
...
6. Ken Griffey, Jr. .940
...
12. Bernie Williams .890

Total Bases
1. Willie Mays 6066
2. Tris Speaker 5098
3. Ty Cobb 4611
4. Ken Griffey, Jr. 3882
...
15. Steve Finley 3027
16. Bernie Williams 2968
17. Kirby Puckett 2939

Runs Created/Game
1. Mickey Mantle 10.26
2. Ty Cobb 9.57
...
8. Ken Griffey, Jr. 7.80
...
13. Bernie Williams 7.15



Vs. League Average
AVG
1. Ty Cobb +.097
...
4. Kirby Puckett +.057
...
13. Bernie Williams +.038
14. Willie Mays +.038

RBI
1. Willie Mays +671
2. Joe DiMaggio +654
...
6. Ken Griffey, Jr. +481
...
13. Bernie Williams +221

Doubles
1. Tris Speaker +388
...
T9. Kirby Puckett +74
T9. Lenny Dykstra +74
T9. Joe DiMaggio +74
...
T19. Bernie Williams +56

Extra Base Hits
1. Willie Mays +541
...
6. Ken Griffey, Jr. +306
...
21. Bernie Williams +126

OBP (min. 2500 ABs)
1. Ty Cobb +.098
2. Mickey Mantle +.094
...
9. Bernie Williams +.051
...
19. Ken Griffey, Jr. +.040

SLG (min. 2500 ABs)
1. Mickey Mantle +.190
2. Joe DiMaggio +.175
...
6. Ken Griffey, Jr. +143
...
31. Bernie Williams +.071


OPS (min. 2500 ABs)
1. Mickey Mantle +.285
2. Ty Cobb +.252
...
8. Ken Griffey, Jr. +.182
...
20. Bernie Williams +.123

Total Bases
1. Willie Mays +1939
2. Ty Cobb +1759
...
6. Ken Griffey, Jr. +1122
...
10. Kirby Puckett +628
...
15. Bernie Williams +548

Runs Created/Game
1. Mickey Mantle +5.58
2. Ty Cobb +4.89
...
7. Ken Griffey, Jr. +3.29
...
15. Bernie Williams +2.03

So those are seem very consistent, he's almost always in the 10-15 range for all of these stats. I don't know though if the 10-15th best CF belongs in the Hall. Some of his total stats will increase, as will the gap between him and the league average. So if he has 2-3 more good seasons in him, he may end up in the 7-11th range. Again, I don't know if this is good enough. Griffey appears to have made it pretty solidly with or without a return from the latest of his menagerie of injuries in Cincy. Bernie's a 5 time All-Star, 4 time Gold Glove, so he gets some recognition for his skills. He also is on and off again in the top ten of a plethora of batting categories (his page on B-R.com).

Final conclusions:
Right now, Bernie, while having many stats better than Puckett, does not deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. But he does deserve mention when they talk about current players who have a chance at the Hall. He needs three more 26-27 WS seasons to have a very solid claim to the Fame (Hall of, . . . I was shooting for a nice rhyme thing). I think if he has two more good (25ish), a 20, and two 17s, then arguments could definately be made that he belongs there. I think right now he is probably the 2nd best overall CF in the game with respect to the entire career (Griffey's #1). I'm sure arguments could be made for either Edmonds or Finley who appear here and there on the previous lists, but they don't have the balance between categories that Williams does. So, I'd say if his career ended today, he has a 5% shot. Two or three more decent seasons, maybe 20-30%. Two or three more good (27-29ish WS) seasons 45-55%. But those numbers are just taken off the top of my head.

One sentence: Bernie is very good, but somewhat underrated league wide as an offensive force, he's very consistent, and at some point in the future may have a legitimate claim to a bronze plaque in lovely Upstate New York.


My references for this have been:
Baseball-Reference.com;
Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia;
Win Shares - Bill James;
The New Bill James Historical Baseball;
The Scouting Notebook 2002;
Leveling the Field - G. Scott Thomas.
Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT (He did this with Ken Griffey, Jr.)


I hope you've enjoyed this long and hopefully coherent post about Bernie W. If you have any comments, please feel free to send them on in. I'll be away from a computer until Sunday, so I may not add anything for a while as I'm going on a long weekend mini-vacation.
- posted by LT @ 7/23/2003 09:06:00 PM

 
Tom Verducci's Mailbag: Bonds had no business disrespecting Ruth - I'm really can't let this die. I know I should just let it go, but . . .
- posted by LT @ 7/23/2003 03:21:00 PM

 
ESPN.com: MLB - For some, major moves needed to stay afloat. Worth checking out this Neyer article about who needs what. Will probably have that Bernie piece up this evening.
- posted by LT @ 7/23/2003 12:38:00 PM

 
Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT - An interesting look at where Ken Griffey, Jr. pops up (so far) as ranking among all center fielders since 1900. One name I kept seeing pop up near (*cough*or above*cough*) his was Bernie Williams. I've long felt Bernie has been a very, very good CF, and underrated as a top CF, but I never really considered him Hall worthy. But according to Baseball-Reference.com he meets at least one, and probably two of their criterea which can be used at a quick glance to evaluate HOF status. The other two he falls well short on. I'm going to look more into this tomorrow, because it's 4AM now, and I have my final research session tomorrow at 1, and I'd like to leave a decent last impression on my advisor.
- posted by LT @ 7/23/2003 04:13:00 AM

 
Winning Used to Be Everything - A great article about Lou Piniella. Sweet Lou. . . I hope he can turn it around down in Tampa Bay. I think with a few years and a decent payroll, he can.
- posted by LT @ 7/22/2003 05:49:00 PM

 
A quick note about payroll which I completely forgot when writing yesterday's post. The Devil Rays payroll with respect to cap space is $31 million, but the Devil Rays cut Greg Vaughn back in March. So if you take his $9.25 million off that number, you get $22.4 million. Which means double their salary is less than that of the 29th team. So a lot of the information in that post is off, but the main point of that rant was to try and demonstrate the problems in payroll distribution.
- posted by LT @ 7/22/2003 05:29:00 PM

 
A Scouting Primer: Hitters - Baseball Primer - An awesome article showing a little of behind the scene action. Screw math research, this look a whole lot more fun.
- posted by LT @ 7/22/2003 09:59:00 AM

 
2003 baseball payrolls based on team info is here. And player by player info is here at Major League Baseball Player Contracts. And now, the amazing analysis which people love me for. . .

The Yankees payroll is unbelievable. $180,322,403. Just ridiculous. Lets put this in perspective, in terms of other baseball teams (since comparing this to the real world is just a waste of time since the entire idea of people being payed this much to play a game, and making this much money off a game is wrong, and might need to be examined as one of the many things wrong with this country).

So here we go. . . The Yankee payroll is 5.69 times the Devil Rays payroll ($31.6 million). The Yankee payroll is 3.19 times the A's payroll ($56.6 million). The Yankee payroll is over twice that of the Angels ($86.6 million). You can have the entire Cubs and Mariners payroll together, and have $1.47 million left over for managers and a nice car. How would you like Atlanta and Toronto? You'd be almost halfway to buying yourself the Devil Rays too. If you have an extra $2.2 million lying around you can have the Devil Rays, the Expos, the Royals, and the A's. The difference between the Yankees and the next closest team (Mets, $116.3 million) is enough to pay for the Marlins.

Are there problems in the distribution of payrolls in baseball? Even as a Yankee fan I'd have to admit yes. But to immediately blame Steinbrenner is a mistake. He's playing by the rules every other team voted for (the Yankees were the only team to vote against the new system). But the cap isn't hard, or even medium-hard. But the bottom end is as much a problem as the top end. The difference between the bottom two teams is $14.2 million. The difference between the next two is only $1.4 million. As much as we need a cap, we also need a floor. The fact that Devil Rays can sit at $31 million dollars is almost as bad as the fact the Yankees can sit at $180. If you take the gap from 1-2 after #2, you get to the the 4th lowest team. If you take the gap from 29-30 and add that to #29, you get #22 team. While the top gap seems bigger, the gap for both is about 1/3rd of the top/bottom team's salary.

To throw out loose suggestions, $50 million floor. A $90 million dollar first level cap, and a $150 million 2nd cap. After the first cap, a 1/4th of your overage is your tax. When you go over the second cap, you have a 1/2 of your overage (of the 2nd cap) is tax, and the difference between the 2 caps goes to 1/3rd.

This will never happen because the MLB's player union is too strong, and unless we have a long strike/lockout it's going to be tough to weaken them. But then again the owners are going to get rich if the players don't. I'm in favor of this ridiculously un-gonna-happen proposal. Halve everything. From the top to the bottom. Owners make half, players make half. Tickets and hot dogs are now half. But this isn't gonna happen, so pining for it won't make it so. I'm very interested to hear any other sugestions anyone has, so send them on in.

Just for a quick reference to another league, the NBA floor is around $32.8 million, and the cap is $43.8 million. But their whole luxury tax system is super-complicated. The Trail Blazers, for example, have a payroll exceeding $100 million. Here is a link, if you want to dive more into this.
- posted by LT @ 7/22/2003 12:32:00 AM

 
Armando Benitez top 10 meltdowns and Consistency from Benitez? Yankees roll the dice are just a few of the millions of articles written which are undermining my confidence about Mando. But I guess it doesn't matter what I think about him. An interesting thing mentioned in one of these is the allusion to Bobby V saying John Franco tried to undermine Mando. I also like Goose's comment, "[Mando] throws the (bleep) out of the ball." I think with Torre's handling of Mondesi as an example of how Torre can work with a guy many refered to as a bad man in the clubhouse. I remember one time last summer when Mondesi carried his bat a ways down the first baseline after hitting a homer off the D-Rays. After he came back into the dugout Torre took him aside and said, "That's not how we do things around here." Mondesi later said he understood, said there had been some history between him and the team before, and that he was sorry.

As I'm writing this the NYY v TOR game is tied at zero. Weaver's on the mound. I'm interested to see how he pitches, and how high his count gets if he gets in trouble in any innings. Mind you, when I say, "I'm going to see how he pitches," that means I'm going to read what the Sportsline.com update says (I've found this is the best of all the in-game trackers out there, better than SI.com, ESPN, and MLB.com).
- posted by LT @ 7/21/2003 06:58:00 PM

 
Mike's Baseball Rants - It's The Joe Morgan Chat Day The Music Died. If you don't know what this is, then you definately need to go to it.

Nothing has really happened in the world of baseball lately (past 10 hours), so I don't have too much to talk about, I'll probably be back later tonight with some amazing commentary which will rock your socks off, but until then, go read Mike's Joe Morgan Chat Day thing.
- posted by LT @ 7/21/2003 03:39:00 PM

 
Bonds drops the ball - Barry may love the Negro Leagues Museum now, but apparently when he hit 73 he couldn't give the time of day. When I go to Cooperstown I'll be sure and complain that there are no black players enshirned there. Oh wait, they are there? Oh. Well, then there must be no mention of the fact there once was a Negro League. . . Oh wait, even the web site has this video on it. I haven't been to the Hall of Fame in probably 7 or 8 years, so I honestly don't remember how much they have devoted to the Negro Leagues and the injustices done those players, but I seem to remember the Hall didn't hide it or ignore it. But I'll be back this summer, and I'll be sure to take note just for you big guy. . .

Look, Barry, you have a chip on your shoulder, knock it off, and remember you get paid $80,000 A GAME. What's that Barry? A game I say? Yes, it's just a game. And you get to do it for a living. And you seem to make a pretty good living. So please, spare us your oh-so amazing view of baseball history. And next time someone (like the Negro League Museum) calls you, please, at least have the common freakin' courtesy to return the calls. This goes for the rest of you, pro athletes or not.


OK, that was an anger filled rant. I'm sorry. I have no problem with Bonds wanting more done to remember the wrongs of yesterday, but I do have a problem with him being a Johnny come lately with these things, and then forgetting them, or even worse, using them to build onto that enormous chip on his shoulder which has kept growing at the same pace as his head.

OK, I'm done now, honestly. . .
- posted by LT @ 7/20/2003 12:06:00 PM